Hurricane Gustav Makes Haiti Landfall; Further Intensification Possible

According to catastrophe risk modeling firm AIR Worldwide, what was a mere tropical disturbance on Aug. 25 is now Hurricane Gustav – the seventh named storm and the third hurricane of the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season.

“Having undergone significant intensification overnight, maximum sustained winds are now 90 mph with higher gusts,” said Dr. Peter Dailey, director of atmospheric science at AIR Worldwide. “Gustav is moving to the northwest at nine mph.”

Dailey continued, “In 1954, Hurricane Hazel struck Haiti with winds of 100 mph just west of where Gustav is forecast to make landfall. Hazel caused massive destruction in the country, virtually wiping out whole towns along the coast and killing as many as 1,000 people. Unfortunately, Gustav's rapid intensification leaves little time for evacuation, and Haiti’s deforestation – a process that began when Hurricane Hazel destroyed nearly 50 percent of the coffee and cocoa trees in southwest Haiti, and which has continued largely unabated – increases the risk of life-threatening mudslides and flooding. Gustav is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of four to seven inches over Haiti, with isolated areas receiving up to 15 inches.

“In 2006, Ernesto briefly achieved hurricane status south of Haiti. However, increased wind shear and interaction with Haiti's mountains weakened the system, and Ernesto passed just offshore of the south-westernmost tip of Haiti with sustained winds of just 45 mph.

“In Gustav's case, wind shear is likely to remain low for the next several hours and the storm may achieve Category 2 status by the time of landfall,” commented Dailey. “The significant question then will be to what extent Haiti's mountains will disrupt the system, which is highly sensitive to the storm track. The current National Hurricane Center forecast indicates that Gustav may weaken slightly but maintain hurricane strength as it crosses Haiti and heads toward Cuba.”

At that time Gustav will be over some of the warmest waters of the Atlantic. If the eye remains south and offshore of Cuba—as the NHC currently expects—additional strengthening is likely. The NHC intensity forecast calls for Gustav to become a major – Category 3 or greater – hurricane by the time it reaches the Gulf late Saturday or early Sunday. Where the track of the storm will lead after that remains highly uncertain.

AIR is monitoring the progress of Hurricane Gustav closely and will issue updates as warranted by events.

Source: AIR Worldwide

Posted: Monday, August 25, 2008 12:00:00 AM. Modified: Tuesday, August 26, 2008 2:59:00 PM.

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